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The blog
Brexit: why can't Europe say it's their problem?
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For weeks now, the question of extending the deadline for Brexit has been on the table. After a first postponement accepted until 12 April but which did not allow the UK to reach an agreement internally, Theresa May has been active in obtaining a new deadline. Emmanuel Macron defended a position of great firmness. The President of the European Council Donald Tusk, supported by Angela Merkel, was in favour of an extension until 2020.
Today, the European Union offered Theresa May a new deadline: 31 October 2019, an extra 6 months. This postponement was justified by the opening of "serious and constructive" discussions between her government and the opposition. On the other hand, this date makes it possible to preserve the unity of the 27, since it corresponds to the installation of a new commission.
Was the EU right to do so?
For weeks now, the question of extending the deadline for Brexit has been on the table. After a first postponement accepted until 12 April but which did not allow the UK to reach an agreement internally, Theresa May has been active in obtaining a new deadline. Emmanuel Macron defended a position of great firmness. The President of the European Council Donald Tusk, supported by Angela Merkel, was in favour of an extension until 2020.
Today, the European Union offered Theresa May a new deadline: 31 October 2019, an extra 6 months. This postponement was justified by the opening of "serious and constructive" discussions between her government and the opposition. On the other hand, this date makes it possible to preserve the unity of the 27, since it corresponds to the installation of a new commission.
Origin of the impasse
The impasse stems from the solution devised to avoid the re-establishment of a physical border between the Republic of Ireland (a member of the EU) and Northern Ireland, which will no longer be with Brexit. The " backstop "or safety net would allow the free movement of goods permitted by the EU to continue, but would block the signing of free trade agreements between the UK and non-EU countries. No border on one side, but no privileged access via Northern Ireland for third countries to the European market. This problem was the final obstacle to the agreement, and the negotiating teams had to work very hard to come up with a creative solution that would meet the interests of both sides.
Unfortunately, British elected representatives reject this solution, citing European interference in domestic politics and the fact that it effectively constitutes remaining in the EU.
How can we make Theresa May's job easier?
To help Theresa May as much as possible, we first need to put ourselves in her shoes and examine the harshest criticisms she faces regarding the memorandum of understanding that the EU wants her to sign. Next, we need to imagine its defence arguments. This will enable us to better appreciate the limits within which it is forced to negotiate internally.
From there, and in parallel, the negotiating teams on both sides would have to get back to work. Their task: to come up with adjustments that might suit both parties. What would reduce the cost of accepting the solution? What would make it more attractive? How would the consequences of a positive decision be more acceptable? We need to change the perception of the choice that British elected representatives see themselves having to make in order to get them to vote the way we want them to. This is how the EU can help TM to obtain the agreement of the British elected representatives and break this deadlock. By recognising shared interests, the motivation to reconcile divergent interests increases.
In conclusion: avoid humiliating others
The UK is in a weak position because a "Hard Brexit", its alternative to a negotiated deal (its MESORE, would be a disaster. Trying to punish them would be counter-productive because, in any case, they will remain partners and this future relationship has yet to be defined. In negotiation, you don't want the other party to feel humiliated or brought to its knees. That's why it's wise to remember the old French saying that I quote regularly: " Never wedge a cat into a corner without leaving a cat flap. Otherwise, it will turn around and jump out at you." .
As long as there is a need to adhere to the solution proposed by the EU, the other party should be offered a choice that is as painless as possible. No, it's not their problem, because it's a common problem and we need to solve it together. To succeed, satisfaction must be shared. Let's hope that this postponement will make it possible to find the right arrangement.
